Real Madrid enter the final Champions League matchday with fate hanging by a thread. They currently sit on 12 points in the new league phase, still outside the top eight places that guarantee direct entry to the round of 16.
Everyone knows that Real Madrid, above any team, is capable of the impossible. Inside the locker room, the players are well aware and confident they can get the desired result. But first.
Real Madrid chases an automatic ticket to the Round of 16
First, Carlo Ancelotti‘s men must beat Brest. Ideally, they’d rack up several goals so that their goal difference outshines any rivals also finishing around 15 points. Yet winning alone won’t be enough. They need other results to go their way in a frantic finish across Europe.
Atalanta must lose to Barcelona, because any additional points for the Italian side could keep them above Real Madrid. Aston Villa, another threat in the standings, should drop points against Celtic. If Villa draws or loses, that keeps them from leaping past Los Blancos.
Feyenoord and Lille also present danger. Their head-to-head match ends in a perfect scenario if they draw, since a win for either side would push that team to 16 points. Real Madrid also hope Monaco falters against Inter, and if Bayer Leverkusen fails to secure three points against Sparta Prague, it further clears the way.
If all those dominoes fall, Real Madrid could finish in the top eight. If not, they’ll head into the knockout phase playoffs. Regardless, they’ve already punched a ticket to the broader knockout stage by reaching 12 points. That safety net may quiet some nerves, yet the club’s DNA is all about aiming for the highest seed possible. A direct place in the round of 16 would mean fewer games, fewer hazards, and more time to focus on La Liga.
Should they slip just short of automatic qualification, they’ll face a two-legged tie in the playoffs to advance. Even that path wouldn’t be easy. No one wants to meet a fierce team in a do-or-die scenario, especially with injuries and fixture congestion piling up. Still, the reigning European champions have never been intimidated by high-pressure situations.
All that remains is to seize every chance against Brest and pray the scoreboard lights up with favorable news elsewhere. It’s complicated and risky. But if Real Madrid have proven anything over the years, it’s that they excel when the odds seem stacked against them. Despite a playoff birth, the extra games could also give them more time to gell. After all, Kylian Mbappe is just starting to heat up.
