Ireland’s win in Budapest changed everything. Troy Parrott sliding away in front of the away end, arms out after that 96th-minute hat-trick goal—it already feels like folklore. Now comes the brutal question: what do they actually have to do to turn that night into a ticket to North America?
They’re in the World Cup play-offs after finishing second in Group F, behind Portugal but ahead of Hungary and Armenia. That late comeback in Budapest, plus the shock 2–0 win over Portugal in Dublin, dragged them from a slow start into the play-off places on the final weekend.
The tournament expands to 48 teams. UEFA gets 16 slots. Twelve go to group winners. The other four get decided in a separate play-off competition at the end of qualifying.
Ireland are in that second group. They haven’t qualified. What they’ve done is bought themselves two more high-wire nights.
What the World Cup play-offs actually are
The European play-offs are their own mini-tournament. Sixteen teams enter. Twelve are the runners-up from the group stage—Ireland included. The other four come from the Nations League, where the best-ranked group winners who didn’t finish top two in World Cup qualifying get a second chance.
Those sixteen nations get split into four “paths,” A to D, with four teams each. Every path has a one-off semi-final and a one-off final. Win both, you’re going to the World Cup. Lose once and it’s over. All of it happens in one international window at the end of March 2026. Semi-finals on March 26, finals on March 31.
The draw happens November 20 at FIFA headquarters in Zurich. That’s when Ireland find out who they face in the semi and which side of the bracket they land on.
The draw has one more layer: seeding. The twelve group runners-up get divided into three pots based on November FIFA rankings. The four Nations League entrants go into a fourth pot. Pot 1 and Pot 2 teams play their semi-finals at home. Pot 3 and Pot 4 teams go away. Ireland’s surge after beating Portugal and Hungary should lift them in the rankings, but projections still have them in Pot 3. That means an away semi-final.
The Budapest miracle only bought them the right to go on the road again.
From Budapest high to March jeopardy
Ireland’s next World Cup date is that November 20 draw. Picture a small crowd in Abbottstown around a big screen while Zurich pulls names out of glass bowls. Once the paths are set, everyone will do what Irish fans did hours after the Hungary game: check who’s in which pot and game out the routes.
If the rankings land as expected, Pot 2 is where the danger sits. Scotland, Wales, Slovakia, Czechia—these are the archetypal semi-final opponents. Solid European sides, strong home crowds, no margin for error. Ireland will almost certainly have to go to one of those grounds and win a single match.
Two squad notes already shape the semi-final. Festy Ebosele and Liam Scales will be suspended after bookings in Budapest. That shaves energy off the right flank and flexibility out of the back line—significant for a team that’s leaned on aggressive wing-backs and Scales’ left foot to get up the pitch.
If they survive that first hurdle, a path final waits five days later. The opponent will be the winner of the other semi in their path—likely a Pot 1 side (Italy, Turkey, Poland, Ukraine) or a Nations League wildcard like Sweden or Romania. A separate draw decides who hosts that final, so Ireland could be back at the Aviva for the biggest home game in a generation. Or facing another trip into hostile territory.
Strip away the permutations and the task is stark. Ireland need to win two knockout games in March 2026. No away-goal cushions. No second legs to repair a bad night. Just extra time and penalties if ninety minutes aren’t enough.
That sense of jeopardy is what made Budapest feel so electric. The television commentator’s voice cracked as Parrott poked in the winner: “I’ve never seen anything like it.” The away end shook. The play-offs will carry the same charge, only with more at stake.
What success would actually look like
If Ireland do their job in March, they join the expanded World Cup 2026 field in Canada, Mexico, and the United States. One of sixteen European teams at a 48-nation tournament spread across 16 cities.
They’d head into a group stage with its own American twist. The World Cup group-stage draw happens in Washington DC next December—the usual backroom ceremony turned into a spectacle, this time with a political bent. Ireland’s slot will be labeled “Play-off Winner” with their group, opponents, and fixtures all determined. They’ll spend March fighting to claim a spot that’s already waiting for them.
For supporters, the practical side is already in motion. Flights are being priced. Fans are bookmarking FIFA’s ticket lottery guidance and mapping which host cities they’d most like to land in if the draw is kind.
Inside the camp, the job is more sober. Protect the core that just took down Portugal and Hungary. Manage fatigue and injuries to make sure March isn’t reached on empty legs. Lean into the belief that came from climbing off the mat in a group where, months ago, qualification looked remote.
The play-offs don’t care about romance. They reward detail, match management, nerve. Ireland have given themselves a shot at the World Cup. To turn Budapest into a beginning rather than a peak, they’ll have to win two more nights that feel just as wild.
